SAN FRANCISCO —
Up to now half-century, simply three individuals have held the seat representing this pretty, boisterous metropolis in Congress. Two of them — Phil Burton and Nancy Pelosi — account for all however a handful of these 57 years.
Pelosi, the speaker of the Home, was first elected in 1987, and her reelection — 17 instances since — is so predictable it’s been many years since she waged something resembling a political marketing campaign. The consensus is that Pelosi, who often garners north of 75% assist, can preserve operating and profitable till she attracts her final breath.
However the San Francisco Democrat, who turns 81 this month, has signaled that her congressional days have their restrict.
She by no means deliberate to serve greater than 10 years, she mentioned in a 2018 interview, during which she spoke of “issues to do, books to write down, locations to go, grandchildren, at the beginning, to like.” She known as herself “a transitional determine” and, campaigning for the speakership, agreed to carry the put up not more than 4 years — till after the 2022 midterm election.
Pelosi has mentioned nothing publicly about her intentions, past a dedication to get huge issues achieved now that President Biden is within the White Home and Democrats management the Senate (barely). Nonetheless, the race to succeed her in Congress is nicely underway as would-be successors increase cash, court docket political activists and place themselves for a contest seen as inevitable if not precisely sure in its timing.
That is, in any case, a metropolis with a hyperactive political metabolism, and greater than 30 years have handed since an open Home seat offered itself.
“I don’t know why anyone would line up for the job,” mentioned Supervisor Aaron Peskin, who described Washington as a “messed-up, gridlocked mosh pit” and would be the solely sentient politician in San Francisco with no real interest in operating. “However I've little doubt if there’s any open congressional seat, the road’s going to be lengthy.”
Among the many prospects is Pelosi’s daughter Christine, which provides all kinds of intrigue.
The competitors would mirror the particular election that despatched the speaker to Washington within the first place, a fracas that drew a cable automobile’s price of candidates — 14 in all. Pelosi, a lifelong Democratic activist, ran as the popular decide of Rep. Sala Burton, who claimed the congressional seat after her husband, Phil, died in workplace. Sala Burton delivered the endorsement earlier than she, too, handed away, lower than 4 years later.
The contours of the race have been classically San Francisco. Regardless of the massive subject, the competition successfully narrowed to 2 candidates: Pelosi operating on the left, and Harry Britt, who changed the assassinated Harvey Milk on the Board of Supervisors, operating on the far left. Pelosi prevailed, narrowly.
The race to succeed Pelosi is prone to break up alongside related traces.
These seen as actively in pursuit — discreetly, in order to not antagonize Madame Speaker — embody state Sen. Scott Wiener, whose district roughly approximates the present congressional boundaries, and former Supervisor David Campos, the chairman of the San Francisco Democratic Celebration. Wiener, a liberal by nearly any measure, is taken into account the extra average of the 2. (“Company Democrat” is the epithet hurled by the more-progressive-than-thou wing of the occasion.)
There are many different doable candidates, amongst them Mayor London Breed, Metropolis Atty. Dennis Herrera, state Assemblyman David Chiu and former Supervisor Jane Kim, who served within the management of Bernie Sanders’ 2020 California presidential marketing campaign.
Town has no lack of political ambition, and the extra candidates who run, the larger incentive for others to take action; in a big subject, 20% to 25% of the vote may theoretically be ample to make a runoff. (Pelosi prevailed in her first race with 36% assist and simply swamped her Republican opponent within the normal election. That was earlier than the state eradicated partisan primaries.)
Then there’s Christine Pelosi.
Probably the most politically seen of the speaker’s 5 kids, the 54-year-old has lengthy been concerned in Democratic campaigns and causes and maintains a pugnacious presence on social media. She has by no means held public workplace, nevertheless, and a few query how voters would view an tried mother-daughter handoff.
“Folks would really feel like, ‘OK, are we going to only vote for the particular person due to their final title and have nepotism win the day?’” mentioned Jim Stearns, a veteran Democratic strategist. “I believe that’s a nonstarter in San Francisco.”
Christine Pelosi didn't reply to requests for remark.
The largest query is how assertive the speaker could be in making an attempt to decide on her alternative. As revered as Pelosi has grow to be, some nonetheless resent her anointment by the highly effective Burton political machine, because it was identified in its prime.
Would the speaker time her retirement to drive a hurry-up particular election, boosting the candidate with highest title recognition, which is to say her daughter? Would Pelosi keep impartial all through the competition, work behind the scenes for a most well-liked successor, or brazenly advocate for one Democrat over one other?
“Extraordinarily skilled politicians don’t go away a lot to likelihood,” mentioned Peskin, who has but to choose a favourite in a race that exists, for now, solely within the ether. “I’ve seen repeatedly, when there are moments of transition, they determine a option to benefit their staff.”
Pelosi has led Democrats within the Home for practically 20 years, and the struggle to succeed her on Capitol Hill is definite to be a fierce one.
In San Francisco, the place campaigns are deeply private and elections a blood sport, the struggle for her coveted congressional seat is prone to be much more vicious.
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